In order to better understand major risks in the context of climate change, and to prevent and raise awareness of these risks, the Nouvelle-Aquitaine Regional Economic, Social and Environmental Council (CESER Nouvelle-Aquitaine) and the AFPCNT organised a round table on 9 October 2024. This article looks back at the contribution of Gilles Grandjean, co-director of the IRiMa Risks research program.
18 October 2024

Moderated by Eloi Choplin, the round table brought together stakeholders from a wide range of backgrounds:

  • Gilles Grandjean, Director of the BRGM program “Natural Risks and Territorial Resilience” and co-director of the IRiMa Risks research program.
  • Ghislaine Verrhiest-Leblanc, Director of the French Association for the Prevention of Natural and Technological Disasters (AFPCNT)
  • Gabriella Carrere, representative of the forestry sector at CESER Nouvelle-Aquitaine
  • Florian Gourdon, employee at Yara France in Ambès, a fertiliser manufacturing company classified as a high-risk Seveso site, and representative of the CFDT trade union

In the first part of the round table, Gilles Grandjean addressed the different scenarios for changes in average temperature, including the +4°C scenario by 2100, and highlighted a number of identified challenges, in particular:

  • Current state commitments do not stabilise climate change at 3°C by 2100
  • This trajectory requires major transformations (energy, transport, urban planning, agriculture, etc.)

He emphasised the need to adapt our societies to climate change, that is, to reduce potential damage, seize opportunities, or cope with the consequences.

Projections en 2030 et 2100 de terres immergées dans le bassin d’Arcachon en raison de la remontée du niveau marin

Focus on Risks in Nouvelle-Aquitaine

The Nouvelle-Aquitaine region is exposed to a range of risks: seismic risk in the southern part of the territory, clay shrink–swell phenomena, as well as mega-wildfires.

Coastline retreat, and projections for 2030 and 2100 of land submerged in the Arcachon Bay as a result of sea-level rise, also represent a major challenge in terms of adapting inhabited and tourist coastal areas, and preserving coastal ecosystems.

What adaptation solutions can be deployed?

To combat coastline and vegetation retreat, nature-based solutions have been implemented, including revegetation actions in certain parts of the Dune du Pilat, lowering of dune crests, and the planting of marram grass to stabilise the soil and preserve this natural heritage.

Today, risk is difficult to assess because it is multifactorial. This is why the Risques (IRiMa) research programme, launched in 2023, aims to develop integrated risk and disaster management, with a multi-risk approach that considers natural, technological, environmental and social dimensions in a global manner.

Gilles Grandjean’s contribution was followed by a presentation by Ghislaine Verrhiest-Leblanc of the results of the perception survey on the barriers and levers of responsible citizen behaviour in the face of major risks, conducted by IFOP for the AFPCNT, and by rich exchanges aimed at co-constructing a territorial response to these challenges.

Find the round table presentations in video format: https://vimeo.com/1011013810/5fac863710?ts=0&share=copy

Table ronde « Changement climatique et résilience face aux risques majeurs » organisée par l'AFPCNT et du CESER Nouvelle Aquitaine le 9 octobre 2024

De gauche à droite : Gabriella Carrere, Gilles Grandjean et Eloi Choplin lors de la Table ronde « Changement climatique et résilience face aux risques majeurs » 

Crédits photo © CESER Nouvelle Aquitaine - AFPCNT

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